In my book, I mentioned 2 seasonal trades in natural gas and gasoline futures that have been consistently profitable for 14 years. (Mentioned here and here also.) And not only in backtest: I paper-traded them in 2006, and actually traded them in 2007-8, and all 3 years were profitable. How did they fare in this recession year? Quite poorly.
Depending on your exact entry and exit points, the gasoline trade lost about $2,500 per contract of RB. The natural gas trade lost about $7,700 per contract of NG.
You may have heard that natural gas price is at a 6-year low. In fact, we are not seeing any increase in industrial demand for natural gas. Apparently, somebody has forgotten to tell the nation's industrialists that an economic recovery is supposed to be under way.
Will I enter into these seasonal trades again next year? You bet I will.