Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Another article on political futures markets
A NYTimes article yesterday talked about the political futures market intrade.com in the context of the November election, particularly the Virginia Senate race, which I blogged about before. I urged my readers to curb their enthusiasm for using such markets for prediction in my article, while the NYTimes article is certainly much more enamored of them. However, I think we can all agree that such markets are very efficient in synthesizing all existing information and opinion in making a prediction, but it cannot reveal information that nobody can possibly know at this point, such as who is going to win the 2008 general election.