Quantitative Trading

Quantitative investment and trading ideas, research, and analysis.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Update on the fundamentals factors: their effect on small cap stocks

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In my last post , I reported that the fundamental factors used by Lyle and Wang seem to generate no returns on SP500 large cap stocks. These...
67 comments:
Saturday, February 08, 2014

Fundamental factors revisited, with a technology update

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Contrary to my tradition of alerting readers to new and fancypants factors for predicting stock returns (while not necessarily endorsing an...
90 comments:
Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Variance Risk Premium for Return Forecasting

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Folklore has it that VIX is a reasonable leading indicator of risk. Presumably that means if VIX is high, then there is a good chance that t...
59 comments:
Friday, November 15, 2013

Cointegration Trading with Log Prices vs. Prices

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In my recent  book , I highlighted a difference between cointegration (pair) trading of price spreads and log price spreads. Suppose the pri...
169 comments:
Thursday, October 24, 2013

How Useful is Order Flow and VPIN?

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Can short-term price movement be predicted? (I am speaking of  seconds or minutes here.) This is a question not only relevant to high freque...
31 comments:
Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Guest Post: A qualitative review of VIX F&O pricing and hedging models

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By Azouz Gmach VIX Futures & Options are one of the most actively traded index derivatives series on the Chicago Board Options Exchan...
20 comments:
Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Momentum Crash and Recovery

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In my book I devoted considerable attention to the phenomenon of " Momentum Crashes " that professor Kent Daniel discovered. Thi...
82 comments:
Saturday, May 25, 2013

My new book on Algorithmic Trading is out

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A reader (Hat tip: Ken) told me that my new book Algorithmic Trading: Winning Strategies and Their Rationale  is now available for purchase ...
260 comments:
Friday, May 03, 2013

Nonlinear Trading Strategies

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I have long been partial to linear strategies due to their simplicity and relative immunity to overfitting. They can be used quite easily t...
28 comments:
Thursday, April 04, 2013

An Integrated Development Environment for High Frequency Strategies

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I have come across many software platforms that allow traders to first specify and backtest a strategy and then, with the push of a button, ...
81 comments:
Thursday, March 14, 2013

What Can Quant Traders Learn from Taleb's "Antifragile"?

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It can seem a bit ironic that we should be discussing Nassim Taleb's best-seller " Antifragile " here, since most algorithmic ...
34 comments:
Monday, February 18, 2013

A workshop, a webinar, and a question

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There is a workshop on the 25th of February titled " Market turbulence; monetization; and universality " by Mike Lipkin at Columbi...
46 comments:
Sunday, February 03, 2013

A stock factor based on option volatility smirk

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A reader pointed out an interesting paper that suggests using option volatility smirk as a factor to rank stocks. Volatility smirk is the d...
34 comments:
Wednesday, January 02, 2013

The Pseudo-science of Hypothesis Testing

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Backtesting trading strategies necessarily involves a very limited amount of historical data. For example, I seldom test strategies with dat...
90 comments:
Thursday, November 29, 2012

The Importance of 2 (as Sharpe Ratio)

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A reader  ezbentley recently pointed out a little-noticed fact in the derivation of Kelly's formula: if we apply the optimal Kelly lev...
83 comments:
Thursday, October 25, 2012

A leveraged ETFs strategy

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In a post some years ago, I argued that leveraged ETF (especially the triple leveraged ones) are unsuitable for long-term holdings. Today, ...
39 comments:
Monday, October 08, 2012

Order flow as a predictor of return

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Order flow is signed transaction volume: if an order is executed at the ask price, the incremental order flow is +(order size); if executed ...
21 comments:
Saturday, August 04, 2012

An options workshop and other miscellany

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I confess I have always found it hard to trade options. This is despite having read some of the "bibles" of options trading, inclu...
39 comments:
Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Extracting roll returns from futures

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Futures returns consist of two components: the returns of the spot price and the "roll returns". This is kind of obvious if you th...
40 comments:
Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Momentum strategies: a book review

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As a devout mean-reversion trader, I find Mike Dever's new book " Jackass Investing " unexpectedly well-argued and readable. ...
65 comments:
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Ernie Chan

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