Quantitative Trading

Quantitative investment and trading ideas, research, and analysis.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

A leveraged ETFs strategy

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In a post some years ago, I argued that leveraged ETF (especially the triple leveraged ones) are unsuitable for long-term holdings. Today, ...
39 comments:
Monday, October 08, 2012

Order flow as a predictor of return

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Order flow is signed transaction volume: if an order is executed at the ask price, the incremental order flow is +(order size); if executed ...
20 comments:
Saturday, August 04, 2012

An options workshop and other miscellany

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I confess I have always found it hard to trade options. This is despite having read some of the "bibles" of options trading, inclu...
39 comments:
Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Extracting roll returns from futures

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Futures returns consist of two components: the returns of the spot price and the "roll returns". This is kind of obvious if you th...
40 comments:
Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Momentum strategies: a book review

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As a devout mean-reversion trader, I find Mike Dever's new book " Jackass Investing " unexpectedly well-argued and readable. ...
65 comments:
Thursday, April 26, 2012

A few announcements

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First, an iPad version of this blog has been launched, so if you are reading this on an iPad, the look will be different. If you want to go ...
59 comments:
Friday, April 20, 2012

The life and death of a strategy

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Sometimes it is instructive to look back at some strategies that used to thrive, and then quite suddenly contracted a chronic illness that u...
74 comments:
Friday, March 23, 2012

High-frequency trading in the foreign exchange market

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This is the title of a report published by the Bank of International Settlements (which serves central banks around the world) in September...
56 comments:
Saturday, March 03, 2012

Hidden Markov model applied to FX prediction

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I read with interest an older paper " Can Markov Switching Models Predict Excess Foreign Exchange Returns? " by Dueker and Neely o...
36 comments:
Monday, February 13, 2012

Ideas from a psychologist

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I have just finished reading Daniel Kahneman's bestseller " Thinking, Fast and Slow ", and found it full of inspirations impor...
48 comments:
Monday, January 30, 2012

What worked in 2011?

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We all know that 2011 was a bad year for many hedge funds, with the average fund down 5% . But what type of strategies did well, and what di...
47 comments:
Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Risk indicators

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During the financial crisis of 2008, I wrote about how I watched some risk indicators such as the VIX or the TED spread  to decide what l...
20 comments:
Friday, November 11, 2011

Trading platform and EC2 revisited

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Recently I opened a  discussion on the various software platforms which allow the programmers among us to build trading strategies easily. ...
63 comments:
Friday, September 30, 2011

Stop loss, profit cap, survivorship bias, and black swans

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I have long espoused the view that we should not impose stop-losses on mean-reverting strategies, nor profit caps on momentum strategies. My...
60 comments:
Sunday, September 18, 2011

More on automated trading platforms

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The ideal software platform for automating backtesting and executing your algorithmic trading strategies depends mainly on your level of pro...
37 comments:
Saturday, July 23, 2011

Sorry, your return is too high for us

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I enjoyed reading Richard Wilson's The Hedge Fund Book  (Richard also runs the Hedge Fund Blogger  site). To be clear: it is purely mark...
30 comments:
Monday, July 18, 2011

The social utility of hedge funds

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There is an article in the New Yorker magazine profiling Bridgewater Associates, the world's biggest global macro hedge fund. Inevitabl...
13 comments:
Sunday, July 03, 2011

Hedge fund transparency and "barometers"

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Jim Liew of Alpha Quant Club recently posted an interesting article about the increasing demand for transparency of hedge fund strategies b...
20 comments:
Friday, June 17, 2011

When cointegration of a pair breaks down

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I have written a lot in the past about the cointegration of ETF pairs, and how this condition can lead to profitable pairs trading. However,...
141 comments:
Thursday, June 02, 2011

Even more on news driven trading

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News driven trading is even more in vogue today than when I last mentioned it, judging from the increasing number of vendors (e.g. Ravenpac...
10 comments:
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Ernie Chan

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